中国休闲零食行业2023年深度分析：市场规模、竞争格局、产品创新与成本趋势

一、市场规模稳步增长，糖果蜜饯类占据主导

据艾媒咨询数据显示，2022年中国休闲零食市场规模达到了约1.16万亿元，同比增长0.8%，过去十年年均复合增速约为7.9%，展现出强劲的市场活力。消费者对休闲零食的需求增长，不仅源于生活水平提高带来的消费能力提升，也反映出消费者对生活品质追求以及寻求情绪释放、压力缓解的需求增强。

在产品结构上，糖果蜜饯类零食以24.2%的占比成为零售结构中的主导品类，紧随其后的分别是坚果炒货（18.3%）和香脆零食（11.3%）。这些品类凭借其独特的口感、多样化的口味以及便捷的食用方式，深受消费者喜爱。

二、竞争格局相对分散，人均消费额待提升

尽管市场规模已破万亿，但中国休闲零食行业的竞争格局相对分散。A股市场中，仅洽洽食品与盐津铺子市值超过百亿元，其余主要品牌如三只松鼠、甘源食品、劲仔食品、良品铺子市值介于50亿元至100亿元之间。行业CR5仅为14.7%，远低于美国（42%）和日本（28%）的集中度水平，显示出行业整合与品牌集中度提升的巨大潜力。

尽管近五年来我国零食人均消费额从43美元/人/年增至47美元/人/年，但与美国（约400美元/人/年）和日本（约200美元/人/年）相比仍有显著差距。这表明，随着居民可支配收入提升、消费观念转变以及企业新品类研发的推进，我国零食市场的消费潜力尚待深度挖掘。

三、零食量贩模式兴起，高性价比赢得青睐

零食量贩业态在2021年后迅速崛起，以高性价比、丰富品种、直接工厂采购等优势迎合了消费者需求。门店数量从2017年的1250家激增至2023年的22,000家至25,000家，年均复合增长率高达108%，销售额更是从37亿元跃升至700亿元至800亿元，年均复合增速约为112%。万辰集团旗下的“好想来”品牌通过整合资源，门店数量突破5,000家，保持每月超过500家的扩张速度，成为量贩零食领域的典型代表。

四、线上渠道持续发力，新媒体营销效果显著

随着电商及社交媒体平台的普及，零食企业纷纷加大线上渠道布局。头部企业如盐津铺子、三只松鼠等在天猫、京东等核心平台保持增长势头，同时在抖音、快手等新兴平台实现了爆发式增长。例如，三只松鼠2023年下半年抖音系营收同比增长264%，稳居休闲食品板块榜首。线上渠道的快速发展不仅拓宽了销售渠道，也为品牌提供了精准触达消费者、打造个性化营销活动的平台。

五、产品创新顺应健康、猎奇趋势

面对消费者对健康零食的日益关注，企业积极研发符合健康理念的零食产品。劲仔食品的富硒鹌鹑蛋、百事公司乐事薯片采用低芥酸菜籽油降低饱和脂肪含量，以及三只松鼠的蒟蒻果冻、良品铺子的益生菌每日坚果等新品，都体现了行业对健康零食的积极布局。同时，为满足消费者猎奇心理，企业推出诸如藤椒味瓜子、海盐味零食等新颖口味，丰富了市场选择，提升了品牌吸引力。

六、春节动销表现强劲，龙头Q1业绩预期乐观

2023年春节期间，零食行业整体动销表现出色。以三只松鼠、洽洽食品、良品铺子等为代表的企业，受益于返乡送礼场景的催化，线下分销及团购渠道销售超预期，实现了较快增长。其中，盐津铺子2023年Q4业绩预告显示，归母净利润同比增长约34.48%至52.41%，展现了良好的业绩势头。龙头企业的Q1业绩表现备受期待，有望在淡季中保持稳健增长。

七、成本分析与展望

原材料成本方面，零食坚果类原料如葵花籽价格趋于稳定，夏威夷果、腰果、开心果等因全球供应增加导致价格下降。肉禽类价格则可能呈现分化态势：生猪价格有望在能繁母猪去化背景下企稳回升，白羽鸡价格受鸡源减少支撑但产品端价格传导受阻，牛肉价格预计将在低位波动，鹌鹑蛋价格则因成本压力缓解而下降。

综上所述，中国休闲零食行业在市场规模持续扩大、竞争格局分散、零食量贩模式兴起、线上渠道繁荣、产品创新迎合消费者需求等多重因素驱动下，展现出强劲的发展态势。尽管面临原材料成本波动等挑战，但行业整体发展前景依然乐观，尤其是头部企业在春节动销的良好表现及Q1业绩预期，预示着2024年有望继续保持稳健增长。未来，企业应继续关注消费者需求变化，强化品牌建设，优化产品结构，深化线上线下融合，以应对市场竞争并把握市场增长机遇。

Industry Insights: China’s Snack Market in 2023

I. Steady Market Growth with Confectionery & Preserves as Dominant Category

The Chinese snack market has maintained robust growth, reaching approximately RMB 1.16 trillion in 2022, up 0.8% year-on-year, according to data from iResearch. This sustained expansion is driven by increasing disposable income and the growing demand for non-essential food items that provide emotional comfort and stress relief.

In terms of product mix, confectionery & preserves hold the highest share at around 24.2% of retail sales, followed by nuts & seeds (18.3%) and crispy snacks (11.3%). These categories, known for their unique flavors, diverse taste profiles, and convenient consumption, are highly favored by consumers.

II. Fragmented Competitive Landscape with Room for Consumption Upsurge

Despite the market’s trillion-dollar scale, the competitive landscape in China’s snack industry remains relatively dispersed. Only two listed companies, Qiaqia Food and Yake Food, boast market capitalizations exceeding RMB 10 billion. Other major players like Three Squirrels, Gan Yuan Food, Jinzi Snacks, and Bestore have market values ranging from RMB 5 billion to 10 billion. The industry’s top five players (CR5) account for only 14.7% market share, significantly lower than the figures in mature markets like the US (42%) and Japan (28%), indicating ample room for industry consolidation and brand concentration.

While China’s per capita snack spending has increased from USD .png/yr in 2018 to USD 47.png/yr in 2022, it still lags far behind the levels seen in developed countries such as the US (about USD 400.png/yr) and Japan (approximately USD 200.png/yr). This disparity underlines the untapped potential for further consumption growth in the Chinese snack market, driven by factors like rising disposable incomes, changing consumer attitudes, and new product developments by businesses.

III. Thriving Bulk Snack Retail Model Catering to Value-Oriented Consumers

Bulk snack stores, characterized by direct factory sourcing and an emphasis on value for money, have rapidly gained popularity since 2021. Store numbers have surged from 1,250 in 2017 to an estimated 22,000 to 25,000 in 2023, registering a compound annual growth rate of about 108%. Sales have concurrently soared, jumping from RMB 3.7 billion to between RMB 70 billion and RMB 80 billion, reflecting a staggering compound annual growth rate of around 112%. The rapid expansion of brands like “Good to Eat” under the Wanchen Group, which boasts over 5,000 outlets and adds more than 500 new stores monthly, exemplifies this thriving business model.

IV. Online Channels Thrive; New Media Marketing Proves Effective

As e-commerce platforms and social media have become increasingly pervasive, snack companies have intensified their online presence. Leading firms like Yake Food and Three Squirrels maintain growth momentum on core platforms like Tmall and JD.com, while also experiencing explosive growth on emerging platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou. For instance, Three Squirrels’ revenue from Douyin-related channels grew 264% in H2 2023, solidifying its position at the top of the leisure food sector. The rapid development of online channels not only broadens sales avenues but also provides brands with a platform for precision marketing and tailored consumer engagement.

V. Product Innovation Aligns with Health and Novelty Trends

In response to consumers’ growing health consciousness, companies are actively developing snacks that align with wellness principles. Examples include Jinzi Food’s selenium-enriched quail eggs, PepsiCo’s Lay’s potato chips using low-glucosinolate rapeseed oil to reduce saturated fat content, and Three Squirrels’ konjac jellies and Bestore’s probiotic mixed nuts – all embodying the industry’s commitment to healthier snacking options. Concurrently, to cater to consumers’ curiosity, firms introduce novel flavors like chili pepper-flavored sunflower seeds and salt-baked snacks, enriching market offerings and enhancing brand appeal.

VI. Robust Spring Festival Sales; Encouraging Q1 Performance Anticipated for Leaders

During the 2023 Spring Festival period, the snack industry witnessed strong sales across the board. Key players like Three Squirrels, Qiaqia Food, and Bestore benefited from festive gifting occasions, driving exceptional performance in offline distribution and group buying channels. Among them, Yake Food’s Q4 earnings forecast for 2023 projects a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from approximately 34.48% to 52.41%, signaling a promising performance trend. Market leaders’ Q1 performance expectations are upbeat, with the potential for steady growth even during the off-season.

VII. Cost Analysis and Outlook

Regarding raw material costs, snack ingredients like sunflower seeds are expected to remain stable, while prices for products like macadamia nuts, cashews, and almonds may decline due to increased global supply. Pork prices could stabilize in the context of reduced sow inventory, while poultry prices may see divergent trends: white feather chicken prices may be supported by tighter supplies, but price transmission to end products may face obstacles; beef prices are likely to hover at low levels; and quail egg prices may decrease due to easing cost pressures.

In summary, China’s snack market is experiencing robust growth propelled by expanding market size, a fragmented competitive landscape, the rise of bulk snack retail models, thriving online channels, and product innovation catering to evolving consumer preferences. Despite challenges such as fluctuating raw material costs, the industry’s overall outlook remains optimistic, particularly given the strong Spring Festival sales performance and promising Q1 expectations for leading companies. Going forward, businesses should continue monitoring shifts in consumer needs, fortify brand building, optimize product portfolios, and deepen the integration of online and offline channels to effectively compete in the market and capitalize on growth opportunities.